In November 2025, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a notable slowdown, with home sales, new listings, and average prices declining compared to the same time last year. The trend reflects continued caution among prospective homebuyers as they await more stable economic indicators and improved job market conditions.
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), REALTORS® reported 5,010 residential sales through the MLS® System in November 2025 — a 15.8% drop year-over-year compared to November 2024. At the same time, new listings were also down by 4%, totaling 11,134 units.
While this might sound alarming, these numbers reflect more of a market correction than a crisis. The pandemic years saw rapid price growth and speculative demand, and the current data suggests a cooling-off period that's allowing the market to re-balance itself.
Economic Sentiment and Buyer Confidence
This decline in market activity appears to reflect a broader sentiment of uncertainty. Many would-be buyers remain on the sidelines, waiting for confirmation that the economy is back on solid ground. As TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule put it, “There are many GTA households who want to take advantage of lower borrowing costs and more favourable selling prices. What they need most is confidence in their long-term employment outlook.”
Encouragingly, some signs point to renewed confidence ahead. Positive employment data and national economic reports released in November suggest that Canada's economic resilience may be stronger than previously anticipated. This could act as a catalyst for improved housing market activity in the first half of 2026.
For many potential buyers, particularly first-time homeowners, job security plays a more important role in decision-making than interest rates alone. Confidence in income stability can trigger a wave of buying activity, even in a high-rate environment.
Month-to-Month Adjustments
On a seasonally adjusted basis, November sales slipped slightly compared to October 2025, and new listings edged lower month-over-month. However, most metrics held relatively steady, some are suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market cycle. This is yet to be seen
This leveling off could signal the beginning of more predictable patterns heading into 2026. Stability, even at lower transaction volumes, gives both buyers and sellers more confidence to make long-term plans.
🏠 Average Price Update:
MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark down 5.8% YOY Average selling price: $1,039,458 (−6.4% YOY)
Price Trends and Affordability
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark fell by 5.8% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the average selling price dropped 6.4% to $1,039,458 compared to the same period in 2024. Despite this, the average price ticked up slightly from October 2025, indicating some resilience at current price levels.
It’s important to note that while prices are down overall, specific segments of the market — such as entry-level housing — may be holding value or even appreciating due to higher demand. Buyers are recalibrating their expectations and looking for properties that offer both value and growth potential.
Affordability remains a key barrier for many, especially in surrounding areas like Peel, Durham, Peel, and York Region. Better price-to-income ratios will attract new families and investors who had previously been priced out.
Housing Supply and Construction Outlook
Inventory continues to play a key role. “Homebuyers are currently benefitting from a well-supplied resale market,” added TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “However, as this inventory is absorbed, new construction is required to fill the housing pipeline.”
DiMichele emphasized the need for projects that go beyond the extremes of high-rise condos and detached homes. “It will be key to see projects that bridge the gap between condominium apartments and traditional single-family homes. Home construction results in large economic benefits that would help in today’s economic climate. All three levels of government should offer further incentives to build more homes for Ontarians.”
Mixed-use developments and mid-rise buildings — especially along transit lines — are gaining traction as long-term solutions. Policies that streamline permitting and incentivize density in key growth corridors will be vital in the years ahead.
🔮 2026 Outlook:
If interest rates stabilize and job growth continues, the GTA market may rebound — especially for first-time and move-up buyers.
What to Expect in 2026
With buyer confidence slowly rebuilding and supply still available, 2026 could see a turning point in market conditions. If rates stabilize or decline, and employment remains strong, pent-up demand may start translating into real market activity — particularly from first-time buyers and move-up households that have been waiting for affordability to return.
We also expect more investors to re-enter the market as cash-flow scenarios improve and price corrections stabilize. The key difference will be a shift away from speculative buying and toward more cash-positive or break-even rental strategies.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or holding, the message is clear: preparation and planning are more important than ever. Getting pre-approved, understanding your price range, and working with a local expert will set the foundation for smart decision-making in 2026.
Final Thoughts
For buyers, this may be a window of opportunity to enter the market at more favorable prices while options are still plentiful. For sellers, strategic pricing and positioning will remain crucial as buyers weigh affordability against quality and location.
As always, working with a knowledgeable, full-time real estate team can make the difference. The Ragona Sisters Real Estate Team brings decades of experience, hyper-local insights, and trusted negotiation expertise to guide clients through every type of market — whether you're upsizing, downsizing, or investing for the future.
